太田述正コラム#3474（2009.8.21）
＜皆さんとディスカッション（続ｘ574）＞
＜戸田奈津雄＞
≫ナイトミュージアムの方は、荒唐無稽なハチャメチャ喜劇だけど、予想を覆してとっても面白かった、といったところでしょうか。≪（コラム#3473（未公開）。太田）
　映画館のシートに座って夢中で画面（字幕も）を追っかけている時は、雑念？を忘れてしまいます。
　ところが20世紀の末頃から増えてきたCG映画に食傷気味となって、映画館に足を運ぶ前からハチャメチャな画面が目に浮かんでくるので、レンタルで十分だと思ってしまいます。
　でも「ナイトミュージアム」は予想を覆してとっても面白かったとのことなので、映画館に行ってみます。
　最近上映された映画で自分なりに秀作だと評価できた映画は「ディア・ドクター（邦画）」「人生に乾杯（ハンガリー）」。
　もうDVD化された「ザ・ムーン（米国ドキュメンタリー）」などです。映画ファンは必ず自分の評価を聞いてほしいのです。
　ごめんなさい。
　これからも雑念を忘れるために映画館へ足を運びます。でも雑念が多すぎて・・・　あははは。
　映画ってほんとうに面白いですね！
　
＜太田＞
　私にとっては、英語の映画を字幕付で見ると、新しいスラングを覚えたり、誤訳を発見したりっていう楽しみもあります。
＜globalyst＞
　–バイアグラ効果–
≫これは、ブラジルだけの現象なのか≪(太田。コラム#3472)
　笑える。この記事についてじゃなくて、この手の話題には必ず食いつく太田さんに。
　この話には続きがあって、
　「また、30歳以上も若い女性への嗜好（しこう）が明確に認められる」
http://www.afpbb.com/article/life-culture/life/2632015/4470577　＜（太田引用の記事（AFP配信）の邦訳）＞
だそうです。
　ブラジル男性は元気ですね。太田さんはどうですか。30歳以上も若い女性。
　遊ぶことはできても、結婚となると私にはできない相談です。
　ところで、一昨夜(8/19)ワールドビジネスサテライト(テレビ東京)の「“ゼロ年代”…2000年から2009年までの10年間…を検証」というトピックの中で「日本では、この10年で労働人口が500万人減少し、これがデフレの主要因である」ようなことを言ってました。
　実際、今年（平成21年２月１日現在確定値）、労働人口（15～64歳人口）は8196万６千人で、前年同月に比べ77万９千人（0.94％）減少しているそうです。
http://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/pdf/200907.pdf
　１年で約80万人！！ですよ。
　最近「子供を産まない女性が増えいている」ことが少子化の原因のように言われることがある（そういう面もあるでしょうが）けど、上の記事読むと、やっぱり男に元気無いのが原因のように思えてきます。
　移民だけじゃ80万人もの労働人口の減少を食い止められないだろうし、縄文モードから弥生モードへ転換して、日本男児もブラジル男性みたいに元気出さないと、本当にこの国は滅びの道を進んでしまう（現に進んでいる）。
　まだ少し不安だけど、頑張れ民主党！
＜コバ＞
　–救えない麻生–
　麻生は景気回復を実績として叫んでいますが、自民党を救うことにはならないようです。
　そんな叫びも断末魔でしょうか。自分は非正規労働者ですが昔から景気いいなんて全く感じたことないし…。
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/audio/2009/aug/18/japan-recession-taro-aso
http://uekusak.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2009/08/post-ce17.html
http://jp.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idJPJAPAN-10444820090807
http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20090820-00000085-mai-bus_all
　日経でも民主党圧勝の情勢を出していますが、自民党公明党の、政官業癒着システムの底力は本当に強固で侮れないと思うので、民主党は油断せずに戦い抜いて、出来る限り小沢系、元自民系でない民主党候補が議席を伸ばして欲しいものです。
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/news/main/20090821AT3S2001C20082009.html
＜太田＞
　記事の紹介です。
　この論考↓を読んで、果たして宗主国米国が日本を守ってくれるか不安を覚える人もいるかもしれませんが、韓国が存在し、日本が米空母機動部隊及びその支援部隊並びにその家族を日本列島にトリップワイアーとして受け入れている限りは、米地上部隊が日本に来援しなくっても心配ありません。
　米空軍は米国領内からだって空中給油機の助けを借りて出撃できるし、すぐ日本列島に駆けつけてくることだってできますからね。
　 ・・・spheres of influence exist, even if some choose to not recognise them. The power of a state is like gravity: it has its greatest influence on those objects closest to it. As a saying popular in this hemisphere goes: “Poor Mexico: so far from God, so close to the United States.”
　The most dangerous crisis of the cold war, the Soviet placement of nuclear missiles in Cuba, was settled on the basis of mutual acknowledgement of spheres of influence. Moscow agreed to remove its missiles from Cuba after the US provided assurances that it would remove similar missiles from Turkey. Even though Turkey was a member of Nato, the US in effect recognised that, at least for this purpose, it was within a Soviet sphere of influence.
　If Georgia or Ukraine has a confrontation with Russia, there is not much the US can do. There are certain realities of geography that present military technology simply cannot overcome. They border Russia, and the US is far away.
　American promises would be as valuable as the French assurances to Poland before the second world war. It is not well known, but France had pledged to launch an attack on Germany within 15 days of any German attack on Poland. Unfortunately for the Poles, the French promise was not serious. When Germany invaded, France declared war — and did nothing.
　Placed in a similar circumstance, that is what the US would do — nothing. The US would do nothing because there is nothing it can do. Geography cannot be changed. In addition, American forces are now fully engaged. In order to increase troop numbers in Afghanistan, the US will have to reduce them in Iraq. Apparently, 200,000 American troops are now all that can be deployed in combat theatres at any one time.
　For all the talk about the lone superpower, that number needs to be kept in mind. In Vietnam, the US deployed 500,000 in theatre at the peak, with a smaller population, and was not responding to an attack on its territory.
　Today the US can deploy far fewer troops. Something has changed in American society. With defence spending increasing to fight wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, George Bush did not even propose a way to pay for the war, either through raising taxes or by cutting other expenditures. No war bonds were issued. The country just quietly accumulated debt.
　A political judgment was made: the American people were told to go shopping. The war would not touch the general public. Only an honoured few would bear the burden.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/aug/20/us-foreign-policy-afghanistan
　イラン・イスラム革命は、世紀の愚行であり、悲劇でした。ピリオド。↓
　せめて、虐げられているイランの女性達に一掬の涙を！
　The Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has announced he intends to appoint Iran’s first women cabinet ministers since the 1979 Islamic revolution.・・・
　 ・・・it is far from likely that the women named by Mr Ahmadinejad as potential cabinet ministers will be pushing an agenda favoured by Ms Afkhami.
　Fatima Ajorlou, his choice for welfare and social security minister, and Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi, health, and Sousan Keshavarz, education, are all considered to be hardline conservatives. ・・・
　Mahnaz Afkhami was one of the last two women to take part in an Iranian government before the revolution.
　Under the autocratic regime of the pro-Western Shah, she served as Minister of Women’s Affairs between 1976 and 1978.
　After the revolution, she went into exile and now lives in America.
“I was one of the first groups that were charged with ‘corruption on earth’ and ‘warring with God’; I was on the blacklist and so I had to live in exile,” she told the BBC’s World Today programme.
　But she had a luckier fate than her other former female cabinet colleague – Farrokhroo Parsa.
　”She was executed. She happened to be in Iran at the time, and she was executed,” she says. ・・・
　”The women who participated in the revolution, and they did in large numbers, many of them were actually pushing for more rights, they were pushing for more freedoms, pushing for more equality,” Mahnaz Afkhami explains.
　”That was why the disappointment was so great when the revolution ended up taking away the rights that they had already gained.” ・・・
　・・・the revolutionary spiritual leader Ayatollah Khomenei viewed all political participation by women as tantamount to prostitution.
　・・・Prostitution was the code word for activism during the early part of the revolution・・・
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8207371.stm
　インドのグジャラート州当局は、ジンナーを称賛した例の本（コラム#3470、3472）を発禁処分にしました。↓
　Authorities in the western Indian state of Gujarat state have banned a controversial book on Pakistan’s founder Mohammed Ali Jinnah.
The book has been written by Jaswant Singh, an expelled leader of the Hindu nationalist main opposition party BJP.
The BJP government in Gujarat said it banned the book for its “defamatory references” to Vallabhbhai Patel, India’s first home minister.
The late Mr Patel is a political icon in his home state of Gujarat. ・・・
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8211038.stm
　フィリピンの窮状についての記事がまた出ていました。↓
　・・・Eight million Filipinos work overseas, or 25 percent of the country’s work force, its leading export. They send home about $17 billion a year, accounting for 13 percent of gross domestic product in 2007・・・.
　Before the financial crisis, the Philippine economy was growing by an average of more than 5 percent a year・・・. But even that was not fast enough to outpace some of the world’s worst corruption or a birthrate that will bring the population to an estimated 101 million by 2015.・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/20/world/asia/20iht-phils.html?ref=world&pagewanted=print
　イラクにおける王政復古については、私もそうあるべきだと記してきたところですが、アフガニスタンで王政復古がならなかったのは、それ以上に残念に思っています。
　米国はホントにホントに愚かです。↓
　・・・”The Iron Amir,” (1880-1901) and that of the Taliban (1996-2001) were predicated on accepted sources of legitimacy of governance (dynastic and religious, respectively), but reinforced by totalitarian methods.・・・
　The tragic mistake, which we warned against, was in eliminating the Afghan monarchy from a ceremonial role in the new Afghan Constitution. Nearly two thirds of the delegates to the loya jirga in 2002 signed a petition to make the aging King Zaher Shah the interim head of state, and only massive US interference behind the scenes in the form of bribes, secret deals, and arm twisting got the US-backed candidate for the job, Hamid Karzai, installed instead.
　The same US and UN policymakers then rode shotgun over a constitutional process that eliminated the monarchy entirely. This was the Afghan equivalent of the 1964 Diem Coup in Vietnam: afterward, there was no possibility of creating a stable secular government. While an Afghan king could have conferred legitimacy on an elected leader in Afghanistan, without one, an elected president is on a one-legged stool. ・・・
　Representative democracy is simply not a source of legitimacy in Afghanistan at this point in its development. This explains in no small measure why a religious source of legitimacy in the form of the hated Taliban is making such a powerful comeback. ・・・
　As a revision of the Afghan Constitution to restore a ceremonial monarchy is now highly unlikely, the only remaining option is to move away from counterproductive efforts to “extend the reach of the central government,” which further undermine traditional sources of local legitimacy and resistance to the Taliban, and work instead to re-empower legitimate local authorities in a more decentralized state.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0820/p09s01-coop.html
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太田述正コラム#3475（2009.8.21）
＜映画：ナイトミュージアム２（その２）＞
→非公開