太田述正コラム#4533（2011.2.1）
＜皆さんとディスカッション（続ｘ1093）＞
＜太田＞（ツイッターより）
　（コラム#4531に関し）中共当局は、カラー革命（含チュニジア、エジプト両「革命」）は真の民主主義をもたらさないって言っている（最後のWSJ記事）が、確かに民主主義はショートカットで実現は出来ない。
　だがお前がそれ言うなっちゅうの。
＜太田＞
　上記に補足すりゃ、ロシアや支那じゃ、革命によって自由民主主義へのショートカットを実現しようとしたどころか、革命によってポスト自由民主主義へのショートカットを実現しようとして、世界中でウン千万の不慮の死をもたらしたわけだ。
　そんな連中に、本件で発言の権利はないの。
＜ΔΥΥΔ＞（「たった一人の反乱」より）
≫日本の公共事業費、決して多くない、という以下の指摘、具体的にいかなるものなのか、誰か教えて！ ≪（コラム#4531。太田）
　たとえば↓は？
http://www2.ttcn.ne.jp/honkawa/5165.html
　カナダは出てきませんが国際比較はできます。
＜太田＞
　どもどーも。
　今、現在の話だったのね。納得。
　それでは、記事の紹介です。
　まずは、エジプト「革命」関連から。
　
　軍が武力を使用しないと宣言したことで、ムバラクの失権がほぼ確定した。↓
　・・・the army announced it would not use force against the people and declared the demands of the protesters to be legitimate.・・・
　・・・surely・・・President Mubarak＜’s＞・・・30-year rule over Egypt is very nearly over.・・・The logical step now, though, is for Mr Suleiman to take over power. ・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12330169
　そこで、急速に「革命」の行く手を心配する声が噴出してきた。
　今次「革命」の核心的原因が指摘されている。↓
　・・・Poverty and unemployment? These are so pervasive that they could explain any rebellion at any time–and in any case Tunisians are among the richest per capita in North Africa. Dictatorship and repression? Again, these are commonplaces, and so far the most conspicuously authoritarian despotisms–Syria and Saudi Arabia, for instance–have been spared the challenge of insurrection.・・・
　・・・history shows people just as prepared to fight for honor and recognition as they are for less abstract concepts like food or territory. ・・・
http://www.slate.com/id/2283168/
　それはその通りだとして、今次「革命」が成功すれば、逆説的に（アルカーイダ等の）イスラム過激派に対する打撃になるかもしれないが、新政権がホメイニ的政権（＝イスラム原理主義的政権）ないしナセル的政権（汎アラブナショナリズム/ファシスト政権）になる恐れもあるとの「中立的」見方が示されている。↓
“America’s tragedy on September 11 was born in the prisons of Egypt.” By visiting imprisonment, torture and exile upon Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, Mubarak foreclosed any possibility of an Islamic revolution in his own country. But he also helped radicalize and internationalize his country’s Islamists, pushing men like Ayman Al-Zawahiri — Osama bin Laden’s chief lieutenant, and arguably the real brains behind Al Qaeda — out of Egyptian politics and into the global jihad.
　At the same time, Mubarak’s relationship with Washington has offered constant vindication for the jihadi worldview. Under his rule, Egypt received more American dollars than any country besides Israel. For many young Egyptians, restless amid political and economic stagnation, it’s been a short leap from hating their dictator to hating his patrons in the United States. One of the men who made this leap was an architecture student named Mohamed Atta, who was at the cockpit when American Airlines Flight 11 hit the World Trade Center.
　These sound like good reasons to welcome Mubarak’s potential overthrow, and the end to America’s decades-long entanglement with his drab, repressive regime. Unfortunately, Middle Eastern politics is never quite that easy. The United States supported Mubarak for so long because of two interrelated fears: the fear of another Khomeini and the fear of another Nasser. Both anxieties remain entirely legitimate today. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/opinion/31douthat.html?ref=opinion&pagewanted=print
　より端的に、エジプトにおける、ホメイニ的政権出現の可能性のほか、アナーキー状態となる可能性を指摘するむきもある。↓
　・・・There are two basic possibilities: the regime will stabilize (with or without President Hosni Mubarak), or power will be up for grabs. Here are the precedents for the latter situation:
・Remember the Iranian revolution of 1979, when all sorts of people poured out into the streets to demand freedom? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is now president.
・Remember the Beirut Spring of 2005 when people poured out into the streets to demand freedom? Hezbollah is now running Lebanon.
・Remember the democracy and free elections among the Palestinians in 2006? Hamas is now running the Gaza Strip.
・Remember democracy in Algeria? Tens of thousands of people were killed in the ensuing civil war that begin in 1991 and endured over a decade.
It doesn’t have to be that way, but the precedents are pretty daunting. And what did Egyptians tell the Pew pollsters recently when asked whether they liked “modernizers” or “Islamists”? Islamists: 59 percent; Modernizers: 27 percent.・・・
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0131/Obama-must-back-Egypt-s-regime-or-face-a-disaster-like-US-did-in-Iran
　そもそもエジプトの人口は多すぎるし、エジプト人はエジプトがスンニ・アラブ世界の盟主であるとの過去の栄光・・もはや幻想でしかない・・の回復を願っているが、そんな国で民主主義が機能するワケがない、とする。↓
　・・・Egypt’s problems are immense. It has a population it cannot support, a standard of living that is stagnant and a self-image as leader of the (Sunni) Arab world that does not, really, correspond to reality. It also lacks the civic and political institutions that are necessary for democracy. The next Egyptian government — or the one after – might well be composed of Islamists. In that case, the peace with Israel will be abrogated and the mob currently in the streets will roar its approval. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/31/AR2011013104014_pf.html　
　イスラエルは、「革命」の成功は、エジプト、ひいてはヨルダンとの和平も危うくしかねない、と「革命」に反対している。↓
　・・・”The collapse of the old regime in Cairo, if it takes place, will have a massive effect, mainly negative, on Israel’s position in the region,” commented the Haaretz military expert Amos Harel. “In the long run, it could put the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan in danger, the largest strategic assets after the support of the US.”・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/31/israel-egypt-mubarak-peace-treaty-fears
　ハマスもパレスティナ当局も、選挙をやらないで権力に居坐っている自分達が危なくなると、「革命」の成功を望んでいない。
　The Hamas rulers of Gaza and the rival Palestinian Authority leadership of the West Bank rarely see eye-to-eye on anything. But with mass protests rocking Egypt, across Gaza’s southern border, the Palestinian adversaries have united in maintaining a cautious silence, hedging their bets given the unpredictability of the outcome and clearly concerned about a possible spread of popular unrest to their areas. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/world/middleeast/01palestinians.html?ref=world&pagewanted=print
　エジプト国内でも、人口の10%を占めるキリスト教コプト派は、「革命」は、イスラム過激派ないしイスラム原理主義への押さえがきかなくなり、自分達が更に迫害、虐殺されかねない、と「革命」に反対している。↓
　Like the protesters who have flooded the streets of Egypt in the past week, the country’s large minority of Coptic Christians worry about joblessness and lack of freedoms. But most want President Hosni Mubarak to stay in power.・・・
　Mr. Mubarak has been aggressive in pursuing perceived Islamist extremist groups, a policy that has endeared him to Coptic Christians, not to mention the U.S. ・・・
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703439504576116222399438428.html?mod=WSJAsia__LEFTTopStories
　結論：ムバラクだけ失権して現体制が基本的にそのまま・・つまりは、人間的な装いを纏った形で・・維持されることが望ましい。↓
　・・・Rosemary Hollis, professor of Middle East policy studies at City University, London, suggested the view of western intelligence officials or diplomats would be: “Senior military people should quietly tell him [Mubarak], ‘We need a more benign version of you.'”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/31/egypt-greater-threat-than-pakistan
　これ↑は、私の見解でもある。
　しかし、長期的にはエジプトで自由民主主義化が漸進的に進む、と私は楽観している。
　その他の記事は一つだけです。
　村上春樹の『１Ｑ８４』の英訳本（1000頁！）がこの秋に出版される件が早くも大きな話題になってるってさ。↓
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2011/jan/31/haruki-murakami-1q84-english-october